紀要論文

紀要論文

text

アジア太平洋論叢. 2006, 16, p. 81-106

日本語

text

2006-11-30

論説

This paper aims to predict how the world would look like in 2020 as far as nuclear weapons are concerned. The threat of nuclear exchanges between the United States and the Soviet Union was the greatest concern during the Cold War. However, the perception of nuclear threat changed to a great extent in the post-Cold War era. Many in the world have come to see nuclear proliferation as the most serious nuclear threat in the post-Cold War "second nuclear age." In order to predict how the world would look like in 2020, first, this paper examines developments in the first 15 years of the post-Cold War era with focus on three aspects: (1)nuclear disarmament and arms control between the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia; (2)multilateral agreements on nuclear disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation; and (3)the U.S. nuclear strategy and nuclear weapons policy. Then, this paper discusses the likely consequences of these developments, the nuclear threat the world would face in 2020. The prediction does not see the bright future. Nuclear weapons in 2020 will pose a greater and more complicated threat than they do now with new nuclear states, possibly Iran and North Korea, and with the weakened and less authoritative NPT regime, and with slightly less nuclear warheads than now in the hands of 5 "nuclear weapons states".

100030

2020年の核兵器問題 : 冷戦後15年間の展開と2020年への展望

山田, 康博

アジア太平洋研究会

日本語

2006-11-30

アジア太平洋論叢

16

81

106

https://hdl.handle.net/11094/100030