学術雑誌論文

本学関連学会

text

大阪大学経済学. 2008, 58(2), p. 269-282

Comparing the Information Contents of IMF and OECD Macroeconomic Forecasts

英語

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2008-09

The paper compares the information contents of two of the most widely used sets of macroeconomic forecasts, namely, the macroeconomic forecasts produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). By testing whether the release of public sector forecasts had systematic impact on subsequent revisions in Consensus (private sector) forecasts, the paper finds that, for the period 1994?2003, private forecasters reacted to the information provided by the IMF on regions (such as non?G7 Europe and Latin America) for which the IMF’s forecasts are known to be more accurate or about which information is less available. What determines the information value of public sector forecasts, however, appears complex. The OECD’s impact was limited in influencing private sector forecasts for the G7 countries, though it had a superior forecast performance than the IMF. Some herding behavior was observed among private sector forecasters.

10.18910/22980

application/pdf

Comparing the Information Contents of IMF and OECD Macroeconomic Forecasts

英語

2008-09

58

2

269

282

https://hdl.handle.net/11094/22980

10.18910/22980

https://doi.org/10.18910/22980