WHY HAS JAPAN’S MASSIVE GOVERNMENT DEBT NOT WREAKED HAVOC (YET)?

Horioka, Charles Yuji; Nomoto, Takaaki; Terada, Akiko

WHY HAS JAPAN’S MASSIVE GOVERNMENT DEBT NOT WREAKED HAVOC (YET)?

Horioka, Charles Yuji; Nomoto, Takaaki; Terada, Akiko

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2014, 888, 1-25

アクセス数:199件（2025-05-19 15:26 集計）

固定URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/26360

論文情報

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タイトル	WHY HAS JAPAN’S MASSIVE GOVERNMENT DEBT NOT WREAKED HAVOC (YET)?
著者	NRID 1000090173632 1000090173632 著者名 Horioka, Charles Yuji
	著者名 Nomoto, Takaaki
	著者名 Terada, Akiko 著者の別表記 Hagiwara, Akiko
キーワード等	Government debt
	government securities
	government bonds
	government bills
	government notes
	sovereign debt
	debt securities
	debt financing
	government debt financing
	debt holdings
	government debt holdings
	foreign debt
	foreign debt holdings
	foreign debt investments
	foreign investors
	capital flows
	international capital flows
	short-term capital movements
	cross-border portfolio investments
	safe haven
	capital flight
	flight to safety
	debt rollover
	home bias
	sovereign debt crisis
	eurozone crisis
	eurozone
	Japan
内容	October 2013, Revised January 2014
抄録	In this paper, we present data on trends over time in government debt financing in Japan since 2000 with emphasis on the importance of foreign holders and speculate about the determinants of those trends. We find that Japanese government securities were held primarily by domestic holders until recently because robust domestic saving, especially household saving, (combined with strong home bias) made it possible for domestic investors to absorb most of the government debt but that foreign holdings of Japanese government securities have increased sharply in recent years, especially in the case of short-term government securities. We show that trends in foreign holdings of Japanese government securities can be explained by conventional economic factors such as returns and risks and that the recent surge in foreign holdings of short-term Japanese government securities is attributable to foreign investors in search of a safe haven for their funds in the face of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 precipitated by the Lehman crisis. Our analysis suggests that the surge in foreign holdings of Japanese government securities will subside (in fact, it already has), and this, combined with the projected decline in domestic saving (especially household saving) caused by population aging, will make it necessary for Japan to reduce its government debt-to-GDP ratio. Thus, Japan’s massive government debt has not wreaked havoc in the past because of robust domestic saving and a temporary inflow of foreign capital caused by the Global Financial Crisis, but it may wreak havoc in the future as both of these factors become less applicable unless the government debt-to-GDP ratio can be brought under control.
出版者	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
収録物名	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
巻(号)	888
ページ	1-25
刊行年月	2014-01
言語	英語
ハンドルURL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/26360
関連情報 (references)	URI https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2013/DP0888R.pdf
アクセス権	metadata only access
カテゴリ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
カテゴリ	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
最終更新日	2014-01

論文詳細を表示

資源タイプ	テクニカルレポート
ローカル資源タイプ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー
DCMI資源タイプ	text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers. 2014, 888, p. 1-25
DC.title	WHY HAS JAPAN’S MASSIVE GOVERNMENT DEBT NOT WREAKED HAVOC (YET)?
DC.creator	Horioka, Charles Yuji
	Nomoto, Takaaki
	Terada, Akiko
DC.creator	Hagiwara, Akiko
DC.publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	英語
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2014-01
DC.relation' scheme='DCTERMS.URI	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2013/DP0888R.pdf
DC.subject	Government debt
	government securities
	government bonds
	government bills
	government notes
	sovereign debt
	debt securities
	debt financing
	government debt financing
	debt holdings
	government debt holdings
	foreign debt
	foreign debt holdings
	foreign debt investments
	foreign investors
	capital flows
	international capital flows
	short-term capital movements
	cross-border portfolio investments
	safe haven
	capital flight
	flight to safety
	debt rollover
	home bias
	sovereign debt crisis
	eurozone crisis
	eurozone
	Japan
DC.description	October 2013, Revised January 2014
DCTERMS.abstract	In this paper, we present data on trends over time in government debt financing in Japan since 2000 with emphasis on the importance of foreign holders and speculate about the determinants of those trends. We find that Japanese government securities were held primarily by domestic holders until recently because robust domestic saving, especially household saving, (combined with strong home bias) made it possible for domestic investors to absorb most of the government debt but that foreign holdings of Japanese government securities have increased sharply in recent years, especially in the case of short-term government securities. We show that trends in foreign holdings of Japanese government securities can be explained by conventional economic factors such as returns and risks and that the recent surge in foreign holdings of short-term Japanese government securities is attributable to foreign investors in search of a safe haven for their funds in the face of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 precipitated by the Lehman crisis. Our analysis suggests that the surge in foreign holdings of Japanese government securities will subside (in fact, it already has), and this, combined with the projected decline in domestic saving (especially household saving) caused by population aging, will make it necessary for Japan to reduce its government debt-to-GDP ratio. Thus, Japan’s massive government debt has not wreaked havoc in the past because of robust domestic saving and a temporary inflow of foreign capital caused by the Global Financial Crisis, but it may wreak havoc in the future as both of these factors become less applicable unless the government debt-to-GDP ratio can be brought under control.
DC.format	26360
citation_title	WHY HAS JAPAN’S MASSIVE GOVERNMENT DEBT NOT WREAKED HAVOC (YET)?
citation_author	Horioka, Charles Yuji
	Nomoto, Takaaki
	Terada, Akiko
citation_publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
citation_language	英語
citation_date	2014-01
citation_journal_title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
citation_volume	888
citation_firstpage	1
citation_lastpage	25
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/26360
citation_abstract_html_url	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2013/DP0888R.pdf