Voting Behavior in the 2011 Osaka Mayoral and Gubernatorial Election : The Effect of Social Stratification

イトウ, タカシ

Ito, Takashi

オオサカ ダイガク ダイガクイン ニンゲン カガク ケンキュウカ シャカイガク ニンゲンガク ジンルイガク ケンキュウシツ

Sociology, Anthropology and Philosophy, Graduate School of Human Sciences, Osaka University

大阪市長選挙

大阪府知事選挙

無作為抽出調査

橋下徹

voter behavior

Osaka mayoral election

Osaka gubernatorial election

random sampling survey

Toru Hashimoto

Toru Hashimoto was elected mayor of Osaka City and Ichiro Matsui as governor of Osaka Prefecture in the double election held on November 27, 2011. The Hashimoto camp’s success in Osaka is considered a typical example of emerging politics in contemporary Japan. However, it is unclear as to what kind of voters support the Hashimoto camp. The media has explained the accomplishments of new political leaders such as those in the Hashimoto camp in Osaka in terms of social stratifi cation, but little empirical research based on reliable social survey data has addressed this question. In this paper, we applied factors of social stratifi cation to analyze voting behavior in the 2011 Osaka double election using data obtained from the “Social Survey on Political Attitudes and Civic Participation in Osaka Prefecture.” We used a multinomial logit model that considered both candidate selection and voter turnout. The result clarifi ed the following one point with regard to the 2011 Osaka double election: social stratifi cation is not related to candidate selection or voter turnout. Based on this result, the framework of social stratifi cation cannot be used to analyze the Hashimoto camp as an example of the emerging politics in contemporary Japan. The popularity of the Hashimoto camp is the result of majority support that surpasses any presumed differences related to social stratifi cation in either candidate selection or voter turnout. This result suggests that an alteration in voter attitudes is responsible for the rise of contemporary Japan’s emerging politics.