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Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers.967 P.1-P.43

The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility

The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University

英語

2016-04

http://hdl.handle.net/11094/56970

We present cross-country evidence that a country’s macroeconomic volatility, measured either by the standard deviation of output growth or the occurrence of trend-growth breaks, is significantly affected by the country’s historical variables. In particular, countries with longer histories of state-level political institutions experience less macroeconomic volatility in postwar periods. Robustness checks reveal that the effect of this historical variable on volatility remains significant and substantial after controlling for a host of structural variables investigated in previous studies. We also find that the state history variable is more important in countries with a higher level of macroeconomic volatility.

The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility

The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University

英語

2016-04

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers

967

1

43

http://hdl.handle.net/11094/56970