Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation

Illing, Gerhard; Ono, Yoshiyasu; Schlegl, Matthias

Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation

Illing, Gerhard; Ono, Yoshiyasu; Schlegl, Matthias

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2017, 988, 1-44

アクセス数:221件（2025-05-21 08:17 集計）

固定URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/58823

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タイトル	Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation
著者	著者名 Illing, Gerhard
	NRID 1000070130763 1000070130763 researchmap permalink read0047247 read0047247 Scopus Author ID 7402959644 7402959644 著者名 Ono, Yoshiyasu
	NRID 1000050844982 1000050844982 著者名 Schlegl, Matthias
キーワード等	Secular Stagnation
	Aggregate Demand Deficiency
	Liquidity Preferences
	Financial Frictions
	Leverage
内容	December 2016. Revised November 2017.
抄録	Why do advanced economies fall into prolonged periods of economic stagnation? What is the role of asset prices and private sector indebtedness for the transition to and the severity of stagnation? In this paper, we present a stylized money-in-the-utility model with a housing sector and financial imperfections to study the interactions between household debt, liquidity and asset prices in an economy with persistent deation and stagnation. Stagnation occurs in equilibrium when a subset of households has insatiable liquidity preferences and hence prefers to hoard cash over consuming. We show that financially more advanced economies are more likely to enter into persistent stagnation. In addition, stagnation is more severe the higher private sector indebtedness. Moreover, credit or asset price booms can mask the underlying structural transition of an economy into stagnation in the short run though at the costs of severing the stagnation in the long run. These findings are in line with the macroeconomic developments in Japan during its lost decades and other major advanced economies during the Great Recession.
出版者	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
収録物名	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
巻(号)	988
ページ	1-44
刊行年月	2017-11
言語	英語
ハンドルURL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/58823
関連情報 (references)	URI https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2016/DP0988R.pdf
アクセス権	metadata only access
カテゴリ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
カテゴリ	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
最終更新日	2017-11

資源タイプ	テクニカルレポート
ローカル資源タイプ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー
DCMI資源タイプ	text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers. 2017, 988, p. 1-44
DC.title	Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation
DC.creator	Illing, Gerhard
	Ono, Yoshiyasu
	Schlegl, Matthias
DC.publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	英語
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2017-11
DC.relation' scheme='DCTERMS.URI	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2016/DP0988R.pdf
DC.subject	Secular Stagnation
	Aggregate Demand Deficiency
	Liquidity Preferences
	Financial Frictions
	Leverage
DC.description	December 2016. Revised November 2017.
DCTERMS.abstract	Why do advanced economies fall into prolonged periods of economic stagnation? What is the role of asset prices and private sector indebtedness for the transition to and the severity of stagnation? In this paper, we present a stylized money-in-the-utility model with a housing sector and financial imperfections to study the interactions between household debt, liquidity and asset prices in an economy with persistent deation and stagnation. Stagnation occurs in equilibrium when a subset of households has insatiable liquidity preferences and hence prefers to hoard cash over consuming. We show that financially more advanced economies are more likely to enter into persistent stagnation. In addition, stagnation is more severe the higher private sector indebtedness. Moreover, credit or asset price booms can mask the underlying structural transition of an economy into stagnation in the short run though at the costs of severing the stagnation in the long run. These findings are in line with the macroeconomic developments in Japan during its lost decades and other major advanced economies during the Great Recession.
DC.format	58823
citation_title	Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation
citation_author	Illing, Gerhard
	Ono, Yoshiyasu
	Schlegl, Matthias
citation_publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
citation_language	英語
citation_date	2017-11
citation_journal_title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
citation_volume	988
citation_firstpage	1
citation_lastpage	44
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/58823
citation_abstract_html_url	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2016/DP0988R.pdf

Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation

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