The structural condition for violence prevention : based on quantitative analysis on homicide rate in postwar Japan

ボウリョク オ ヨクセイ スル コウゾウテキ ジョウケン : サツジンリツ ノ ケイリョウブンセキ カラ

ヒラノ, タカノリ

Hirano, Takanori

オオサカ ダイガク ダイガクイン ニンゲン カガク ケンキュウカ シャカイガク ニンゲンガク ジンルイガク ケンキュウシツ

Sociology, Anthropology and Philosophy, Graduate School of Human Sciences, Osaka University

犯罪

殺人

人口移動

パネルデータ

The aim of this study is to examine the structural conditions for violence prevention. The studies based on rational choice theory have found that the homicide rate in postwar Japan is determined by the economic factor such as living standards. While previous studies have focused on the relationship between economic factors and homicide rate, however, they rarely investigate the relationship between non-economic factors and homicide rate. This study explores factors which affect the change of homicide rate in postwar Japan from a sociological perspective, considering three macro-criminological theory : anomie theory, social disorganization theory, and institutional anomie theory. By theoretical consideration, I establish three hypotheses: (1) the level of social security benefits has negative effect on homicide rate; (2) the level of poverty has positive effect on homicide rate; (3) the level of population mobility has positive effect on homicide rate. By analyzing a prefecture-level panel data, the following results are found: (1) the level of social security has no significant effect on homicide rate; (2) the level of poverty and that of population mobility have significant positive effect on homicide rate. Thus, the homicide rate in postwar Japan is determined by the non-economic factor such as population mobility, and social disorganization theory can explain the change of homicide rate in postwar Japan as well as rational choice theory does.