The perception of climate sensitivity : Revealing priors from posteriors

Ikefuji, Masako; Magnus, Jan R.

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2020, 1111, 1-24

アクセス数:344件（2025-09-30 10:56 集計）

固定URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/77674

論文情報

ファイル出力 EndNote Basic出力 Mendeley出力

タイトル
The perception of climate sensitivity : Revealing priors from posteriors
著者
NRID
1000060452380 1000060452380
researchmap permalink
7000013503 7000013503
Scopus Author ID
22934213000 22934213000
著者名
Ikefuji, Masako
著者名
Magnus, Jan R.
キーワード等
Revealed prior
climate sensitivity
IPCC
抄録
A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into their prior beliefs. It appears that the IPCC scientists have agreed a priori on a value for the climate equilibrium between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius, while judging the occurrence of a real disaster much more likely than the previous report predicts.
出版者
The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
収録物名
Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
巻(号)
1111
ページ
1-24
刊行年月
2020-12
言語
英語
ハンドルURL
https://hdl.handle.net/11094/77674
PISSN
0473453X
eISSN
24350982
関連情報 (references)
URI
https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2020/DP1111.pdf
アクセス権
metadata only access
カテゴリ
ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers