Strategic Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sophistication

Aoyagi, Masaki; Masuda, Takehito; Nishimura, Naoko

Strategic Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sophistication

Aoyagi, Masaki; Masuda, Takehito; Nishimura, Naoko

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2021, 1117, 1-43

アクセス数:406件（2025-09-10 13:11 集計）

固定URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/78957

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タイトル	Strategic Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sophistication
著者	NRID 1000050314430 1000050314430 ORCID 0000-0003-0647-3733 0000-0003-0647-3733 researchmap permalink Masaki_Aoyagi Masaki_Aoyagi Scopus Author ID 7201467696 7201467696 著者名 Aoyagi, Masaki
	NRID 1000080725060 1000080725060 著者名 Masuda, Takehito
	NRID 1000030218200 1000030218200 著者名 Nishimura, Naoko
キーワード等	matching probability
	ambiguity
	uncertainty
	coordination
	conjunction
抄録	This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects’ assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non-strategic decisions of other players. Nonstrategic events are defined by the colors of balls drawn from urns, whereas strategic events are defined by the action choice in Stag Hunt (SH) and Prisoners’ Dilemma (PD) games. We elicit subjects’ matching probabilities and examine if they satisfy the law of probability including monotonicity and additivity. Violations from the law are observed for both uncertainty sources, but are more substantial for strategic uncertainty. In particular, we observe a coordination fallacy, a violation of monotonicity whereby the probability weight placed on a symmetric coordination profile of the games exceeds that placed on the corresponding action choice. The violation is found to be severer for an efficient coordination profile.
出版者	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
収録物名	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
巻(号)	1117
ページ	1-43
刊行年月	2021-02
言語	英語
ハンドルURL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/78957
PISSN	0473453X
eISSN	24350982
関連情報 (references)	URI https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2021/DP1117.pdf
アクセス権	metadata only access
カテゴリ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
カテゴリ	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers

資源タイプ	テクニカルレポート
ローカル資源タイプ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー
DCMI資源タイプ	text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers. 2021, 1117, p. 1-43
DC.title	Strategic Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sophistication
DC.creator	Aoyagi, Masaki
	Masuda, Takehito
	Nishimura, Naoko
DC.publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	英語
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2021-02
DC.relation' scheme='DCTERMS.URI	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2021/DP1117.pdf
DC.subject	matching probability
	ambiguity
	uncertainty
	coordination
	conjunction
DCTERMS.abstract	This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects’ assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non-strategic decisions of other players. Nonstrategic events are defined by the colors of balls drawn from urns, whereas strategic events are defined by the action choice in Stag Hunt (SH) and Prisoners’ Dilemma (PD) games. We elicit subjects’ matching probabilities and examine if they satisfy the law of probability including monotonicity and additivity. Violations from the law are observed for both uncertainty sources, but are more substantial for strategic uncertainty. In particular, we observe a coordination fallacy, a violation of monotonicity whereby the probability weight placed on a symmetric coordination profile of the games exceeds that placed on the corresponding action choice. The violation is found to be severer for an efficient coordination profile.
DC.format	78957
citation_title	Strategic Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sophistication
citation_author	Aoyagi, Masaki
	Masuda, Takehito
	Nishimura, Naoko
citation_publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
citation_language	英語
citation_date	2021-02
citation_journal_title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
citation_volume	1117
citation_firstpage	1
citation_lastpage	43
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/78957
citation_abstract_html_url	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2021/DP1117.pdf

Strategic Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sophistication

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