Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption

L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Waldmann, Robert; Yoo, Donghoon

Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption

L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Waldmann, Robert; Yoo, Donghoon

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2021, 1135, 1-52

アクセス数:351件（2026-04-06 00:21 集計）

固定URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/81855

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タイトル	Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption
著者	著者名 L'Huillier, Jean-Paul
	著者名 Waldmann, Robert
	NRID 1000020868541 1000020868541 ORCID 0000-0003-0039-3441 0000-0003-0039-3441 researchmap permalink donghoonyoo donghoonyoo Scopus Author ID 57193313650 57193313650 著者名 Yoo, Donghoon
キーワード等	Aggregate spending
	confidence indices
	noisy information
抄録	We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption fluctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy information. Our model-based measure, estimated using national accounts, closely mimics out-of-sample survey data in the U.S. and a majority of European countries. The results provide a theoretical foundation for the use of survey-based consumer confidence indices. In addition, since national accounts are an internationally consistent measure of activity, our structural method provides an alternative and internationally consistent measure of consumer confidence.
出版者	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
収録物名	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
巻(号)	1135
ページ	1-52
刊行年月	2021-06
言語	英語
ハンドルURL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/81855
PISSN	0473453X
eISSN	24350982
関連情報 (references)	URI https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2021/DP1135.pdf
アクセス権	metadata only access
カテゴリ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
カテゴリ	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers

資源タイプ	テクニカルレポート
ローカル資源タイプ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー
DCMI資源タイプ	text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers. 2021, 1135, p. 1-52
DC.title	Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption
DC.creator	L'Huillier, Jean-Paul
	Waldmann, Robert
	Yoo, Donghoon
DC.publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	英語
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2021-06
DC.relation' scheme='DCTERMS.URI	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2021/DP1135.pdf
DC.subject	Aggregate spending
	confidence indices
	noisy information
DCTERMS.abstract	We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption fluctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy information. Our model-based measure, estimated using national accounts, closely mimics out-of-sample survey data in the U.S. and a majority of European countries. The results provide a theoretical foundation for the use of survey-based consumer confidence indices. In addition, since national accounts are an internationally consistent measure of activity, our structural method provides an alternative and internationally consistent measure of consumer confidence.
DC.format	81855
citation_title	Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption
citation_author	L'Huillier, Jean-Paul
	Waldmann, Robert
	Yoo, Donghoon
citation_publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
citation_language	英語
citation_date	2021-06
citation_journal_title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
citation_volume	1135
citation_firstpage	1
citation_lastpage	52
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/81855
citation_abstract_html_url	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2021/DP1135.pdf

Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption

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