The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity

Ikefuji, Masako; Magnus, Jan R.; Vasnev, Andrey L.

The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity

Ikefuji, Masako; Magnus, Jan R.; Vasnev, Andrey L.

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2023, 1217, 1-27

アクセス数:300件（2025-09-30 10:56 集計）

固定URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/93137

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タイトル	The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity
著者	NRID 1000060452380 1000060452380 researchmap permalink 7000013503 7000013503 Scopus Author ID 22934213000 22934213000 著者名 Ikefuji, Masako
	著者名 Magnus, Jan R.
	著者名 Vasnev, Andrey L.
キーワード等	Revealed prior
	climate sensitivity
	data uncertainty
	combining information
	correlation
	IPCC
抄録	In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to equilibrium climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the IPCC scientists. It appears that the data contain much less information than one might think, due to the presence of correlation. We conclude that the prior in the fifth IPCC report was too low, and in the sixth report too high.
出版者	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
収録物名	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
巻(号)	1217
ページ	1-27
刊行年月	2023-11
言語	英語
ハンドルURL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/93137
PISSN	0473453X
eISSN	24350982
関連情報 (references)	URI https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2023/DP1217.pdf
アクセス権	metadata only access
カテゴリ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
カテゴリ	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers

資源タイプ	テクニカルレポート
ローカル資源タイプ	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー
DCMI資源タイプ	text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers. 2023, 1217, p. 1-27
DC.title	The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity
DC.creator	Ikefuji, Masako
	Magnus, Jan R.
	Vasnev, Andrey L.
DC.publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	英語
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2023-11
DC.relation' scheme='DCTERMS.URI	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2023/DP1217.pdf
DC.subject	Revealed prior
	climate sensitivity
	data uncertainty
	combining information
	correlation
	IPCC
DCTERMS.abstract	In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to equilibrium climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the IPCC scientists. It appears that the data contain much less information than one might think, due to the presence of correlation. We conclude that the prior in the fifth IPCC report was too low, and in the sixth report too high.
DC.format	93137
citation_title	The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity
citation_author	Ikefuji, Masako
	Magnus, Jan R.
	Vasnev, Andrey L.
citation_publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
citation_language	英語
citation_date	2023-11
citation_journal_title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
citation_volume	1217
citation_firstpage	1
citation_lastpage	27
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/93137
citation_abstract_html_url	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2023/DP1217.pdf

The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity

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