学術雑誌論文

学術雑誌論文

text

Political Behavior. 2023, 45, p. 1683-1709

Now or Later?: The Inter-temporal Decision-Making of Electoral Participation

Springer

英語

text

2023-12-01

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09790-6

The version of record of this article, first published in Political Behavior, is available online at Publisher’s website: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09790-6.

This study examines the dynamic nature of voting in modern elections with wide voting windows. Our stylized two-period model predicts that, if voters are not myopic, turnout in the current period tends to increase as the costs in the other period increase. The model also predicts that overall turnout does not always decrease even when the costs increase. We test these predictions using novel data from Japan’s General Election in 2017 with a weather disruption caused by a powerful typhoon. Our analyses show that the tremendous costs on Election Day shifted the timing of voting and did not decrease overall turnout in 2017, as compared to 2014. Our model and findings build a new benchmark to understand how voters decide their timing of voting. This study also has implications for the unprecedented popularity of early voting in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

95714

Now or Later?: The Inter-temporal Decision-Making of Electoral Participation

Springer

英語

2023-12-01

Political Behavior

45

1683

1709

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09790-6

https://hdl.handle.net/11094/95714