Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment

Hara, Keishiro; Fuchigami, Yukari; Arai, Takanobu et al.

Futures and Foresight Science, 2024, 6(4), e191

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固定URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98128

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タイトル
Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment
著者
NRID
1000030393036 1000030393036
researchmap permalink
read0138648 read0138648
Scopus Author ID
24528571500 24528571500
著者名
Hara, Keishiro
NRID
1000070712834 1000070712834
researchmap permalink
mangrove-asia mangrove-asia
Scopus Author ID
56596562100 56596562100
著者名
Fuchigami, Yukari
著者名
Arai, Takanobu
NRID
1000090362657 1000090362657
researchmap permalink
read0108233 read0108233
Scopus Author ID
6505911435 6505911435
著者名
Nomaguchi, Yutaka
キーワード等
causal-loop diagram
debate experiment
futurability
imaginary future generations
systems thinking
内容
Hara K., Fuchigami Y., Arai T., et al. Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment. Futures and Foresight Science , (2024); https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.191.
抄録
We adopted an innovative methodology that combines systems thinking with “imaginary future generations” (IFGs), a method for activating “futurability” in people, to discussions about the issues and needs of a future society, and we verified the effectiveness and value of this methodology. We conducted a series of five debate experiments in which groups comprised of company employees and university students worked to formulate a vision of the future state, social issues, and social needs of society in 2050, and to investigate policies that should be adopted in the years ahead. The results of a text analysis of group debates and questionnaire surveys of debate participants showed that (1) adopting IFGs facilitates the exploration of new issues and needs when depicting the images of the future state of society; (2) adopting IFGs gives rise to recognized cognitive changes in debate participants; and (3) combining the IFG methodology with causal loop diagrams (CLDs), a systems thinking tool, makes it possible to generate the effects of systems thinking while simultaneously maintaining a “future generation” perspective. Most importantly, the results show that the IFG methodology and CLDs could be compatible. These findings demonstrate that a combination of IFGs and systems thinking can effectively be used in discussions and decision-making that deal with complex issues related to the future of society.
出版者
John Wiley and Sons Inc
収録物名
Futures and Foresight Science
巻(号)
6(4)
ページ
e191
刊行年月
2024-07-22
言語
英語
ハンドルURL
https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98128
eISSN
25735152
関連情報 (isIdenticalTo)
DOI (出版社版)
https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.191
アクセス権
open access
権利情報
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
出版タイプ
Version of Record
カテゴリ
学術雑誌論文 Journal Article