Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation

Murakami, Michio; Ando, Hiroki; Yamaguchi, Ryo; Kitajima, Masaaki

doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176702

Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation

Murakami, Michio; Ando, Hiroki; Yamaguchi, Ryo et al.

Science of the Total Environment, 2024, 954, 176702

アクセス数:435件（2025-09-01 16:59 集計）

固定URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98589

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タイトル	Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation
著者	NRID 1000050509932 1000050509932 researchmap permalink read0123510 read0123510 Scopus Author ID 23486135100 23486135100 著者名 Murakami, Michio
	著者名 Ando, Hiroki
	著者名 Yamaguchi, Ryo
	NRID 1000030777967 1000030777967 著者名 Kitajima, Masaaki
キーワード等	Analytical sensitivity
	Data handling
	Sampling frequency
	SARS-CoV-2
	Wastewater surveillance
	Wastewater-based epidemiological monitoring
内容	Murakami M., Ando H., Yamaguchi R., et al. Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation. Science of the Total Environment 954, 176702 (2024); https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176702.
抄録	Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) requires high-quality survey methods to determine the incidence of infections in wastewater catchment areas. In this study, the wastewater survey methods necessary for comprehending the incidence of infection by WBE are clarified. This clarification is based on the correlation with the number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, considering factors such as handling non-detect data, calculation method for representative values, analytical sensitivity, analytical reproducibility, sampling frequency, and survey duration. Data collected from 15 samples per week for two and a half years using a highly accurate analysis method were regarded as gold standard data, and the correlation between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentrations in wastewater and confirmed COVID-19 cases was analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation under the hypothetical situation where the quality of the wastewater survey method was reduced. Regarding data handling, it was appropriate to replace non-detect data with estimates based on distribution, and to use geometric means to calculate representative values. For the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in samples, using a highly sensitive and reproducible method (non-detect rates of <40 %; ≤0.4 standard deviation) and surveying at least three samples, preferably five samples, per week were considered desirable. Furthermore, conducting the survey over a period of time that included at least 50 weeks was necessary. A WBE that meets these survey criteria is sufficient for the determination of the COVID-19 infection incidence in the catchment. Furthermore, WBE can offer additional insights into infection rates in the catchment, such as the estimated 48 % decrease in confirmed COVID-19 cases visiting a clinic following a COVID-19 legal reclassification in Japan.
出版者	Elsevier B.V.
収録物名	Science of the Total Environment
巻(号)	954
ページ	176702
刊行年月	2024-12-01
言語	英語
ハンドルURL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98589
PISSN	00489697
eISSN	18791026
関連情報 (isIdenticalTo)	DOI (出版社版) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176702
アクセス権	open access
権利情報	This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
出版タイプ	Version of Record
カテゴリ	学術雑誌論文 Journal Article

資源タイプ	学術雑誌論文
ローカル資源タイプ	学術雑誌論文
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Science of the Total Environment. 2024, 954, p. 176702
DC.title	Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation
DC.creator	Murakami, Michio
	Ando, Hiroki
	Yamaguchi, Ryo
	Kitajima, Masaaki
DC.publisher	Elsevier B.V.
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	英語
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2024-12-01
DC.identifier	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176702
DC.subject	Analytical sensitivity
	Data handling
	Sampling frequency
	SARS-CoV-2
	Wastewater surveillance
	Wastewater-based epidemiological monitoring
DC.description	Murakami M., Ando H., Yamaguchi R., et al. Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation. Science of the Total Environment 954, 176702 (2024); https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176702.
DCTERMS.abstract	Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) requires high-quality survey methods to determine the incidence of infections in wastewater catchment areas. In this study, the wastewater survey methods necessary for comprehending the incidence of infection by WBE are clarified. This clarification is based on the correlation with the number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, considering factors such as handling non-detect data, calculation method for representative values, analytical sensitivity, analytical reproducibility, sampling frequency, and survey duration. Data collected from 15 samples per week for two and a half years using a highly accurate analysis method were regarded as gold standard data, and the correlation between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentrations in wastewater and confirmed COVID-19 cases was analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation under the hypothetical situation where the quality of the wastewater survey method was reduced. Regarding data handling, it was appropriate to replace non-detect data with estimates based on distribution, and to use geometric means to calculate representative values. For the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in samples, using a highly sensitive and reproducible method (non-detect rates of <40 %; ≤0.4 standard deviation) and surveying at least three samples, preferably five samples, per week were considered desirable. Furthermore, conducting the survey over a period of time that included at least 50 weeks was necessary. A WBE that meets these survey criteria is sufficient for the determination of the COVID-19 infection incidence in the catchment. Furthermore, WBE can offer additional insights into infection rates in the catchment, such as the estimated 48 % decrease in confirmed COVID-19 cases visiting a clinic following a COVID-19 legal reclassification in Japan.
DC.rights	This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
DC.format	98589
citation_title	Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation
citation_author	Murakami, Michio
	Ando, Hiroki
	Yamaguchi, Ryo
	Kitajima, Masaaki
citation_publisher	Elsevier B.V.
citation_language	英語
citation_date	2024-12-01
citation_journal_title	Science of the Total Environment
citation_volume	954
citation_firstpage	176702
citation_doi	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176702
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98589

Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation

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