Focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences: An experimental analysis

Ferreira, João V.; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Tarroux, Benoît

Focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences: An experimental analysis

Ferreira, João V.; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Tarroux, Benoît

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2025, 1287

Number of Access:150（2025-09-07 12:27 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/101385

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Title	Focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences: An experimental analysis
Creator	CreatorName Ferreira, João V.
	NRID 1000070400611 1000070400611 ORCID 0000-0003-3127-690X 0000-0003-3127-690X researchmap permalink nhanaki nhanaki Scopus Author ID 16233221700 16233221700 CreatorName Hanaki, Nobuyuki
	CreatorName Tarroux, Benoît
Subject	Distributional preference
	Focal Points
	Equal spli
	Belief elicitation
	False-consensus bias
JEL	C9
	D3
	D63
	D7
	D9
Abstract	This paper experimentally examines the interplay between focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences. Contrary to common wisdom, there is no detectable evidence that equal splits act as salient focal points in distributional voting contexts. Participants mispredict others’ preferences: they overestimate egalitarianism when Pareto efficient options are available and underestimate it when efficiency gains come at others’ expense. There is a clear correlation between individuals’ preferences and beliefs (false-consensus bias), and participants are more egalitarian when they perceive a low probability of being pivotal (cheap fairman talk). These findings challenge assumptions about focal points and highlight beliefdriven behavior in distributional settings.
Publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka
Source Title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
Volume (Issue)	1287
Date of Issued	2025-05
Language	English
Handle URL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/101385
PISSN	0473453X
eISSN	24350982
Relation.references	URI https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/DP1287.pdf
Access Rights	metadata only access
Category	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
Category	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers

Resource Type	technical report
Local Type	DP/WP
DCMI Type	Text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers. 2025, 1287
DC.title	Focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences: An experimental analysis
DC.creator	Ferreira, João V.
	Hanaki, Nobuyuki
	Tarroux, Benoît
DC.publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	English
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	Text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2025-05
DC.relation' scheme='DCTERMS.URI	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/DP1287.pdf
DC.subject	Distributional preference
	Focal Points
	Equal spli
	Belief elicitation
	False-consensus bias
DCTERMS.abstract	This paper experimentally examines the interplay between focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences. Contrary to common wisdom, there is no detectable evidence that equal splits act as salient focal points in distributional voting contexts. Participants mispredict others’ preferences: they overestimate egalitarianism when Pareto efficient options are available and underestimate it when efficiency gains come at others’ expense. There is a clear correlation between individuals’ preferences and beliefs (false-consensus bias), and participants are more egalitarian when they perceive a low probability of being pivotal (cheap fairman talk). These findings challenge assumptions about focal points and highlight beliefdriven behavior in distributional settings.
DC.format	101385
citation_title	Focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences: An experimental analysis
citation_author	Ferreira, João V.
	Hanaki, Nobuyuki
	Tarroux, Benoît
citation_publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka
citation_language	English
citation_date	2025-05
citation_journal_title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
citation_volume	1287
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/101385
citation_abstract_html_url	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/DP1287.pdf

Focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences: An experimental analysis

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