Happiness Before and After an Election : An Analysis Based on a Daily Survey Around Japan's 2009 Election

Kimball, Miles; Morimoto, Shoko; Kinari, Yusuke; Ohtake, Fumio; Tsutsui, Yoshiro

Happiness Before and After an Election : An Analysis Based on a Daily Survey Around Japan's 2009 Election

Kimball, Miles; Morimoto, Shoko; Kinari, Yusuke et al.

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2015, 924, 1-34

Number of Access:476（2025-09-09 18:00 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/51201

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Title	Happiness Before and After an Election : An Analysis Based on a Daily Survey Around Japan's 2009 Election
Creator	CreatorName Kimball, Miles
	CreatorName Morimoto, Shoko
	NRID 1000010509855 1000010509855 CreatorName Kinari, Yusuke
	NRID 1000050176913 1000050176913 ORCID 0000-0002-8825-7446 0000-0002-8825-7446 researchmap permalink ohtake ohtake Scopus Author ID 6701666319 6701666319 CreatorName Ohtake, Fumio
	NRID 1000050163845 1000050163845 CreatorName Tsutsui, Yoshiro
Subject	happiness
	election
	expectation
	survey
	Japan
Abstract	This paper investigates whether the Japanese voters became happy and/or unhappy due to the results of the General Election in 2009. We conducted a daily web survey for seven days before and after the election, obtaining1068 responses. Estimating a fixed effects model, we found that supporters of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the winner, became significantly happier, and supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) and New Komeito, the losers, became significantly unhappier on the day following the election. However, happiness returned to the previous level in one or two days, implying people adapted to the news very quickly. Dividing those who support the policies of DPJ into two groups, those who expect material benefits from the victory of DPJ and those who do not, we demonstrated that the reason why the supporters of the winner (DPJ) felt happy was not because they obtained material benefits from the change of government. We also found that the happiness level of those whose expectation of the election results were realized did not change, while that of those whose expectation differed from the reality changed substantially. In a word, only unexpected results matter.
Publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
Source Title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
Volume (Issue)	924
Page	1-34
Date of Issued	2015-01
Language	English
Handle URL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/51201
Relation.references	URI https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2015/DP0924.pdf
Access Rights	metadata only access
Category	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
Category	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers

Resource Type	technical report
Local Type	DP/WP
DCMI Type	Text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers. 2015, 924, p. 1-34
DC.title	Happiness Before and After an Election : An Analysis Based on a Daily Survey Around Japan's 2009 Election
DC.creator	Kimball, Miles
	Morimoto, Shoko
	Kinari, Yusuke
	Ohtake, Fumio
	Tsutsui, Yoshiro
DC.publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	English
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	Text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2015-01
DC.relation' scheme='DCTERMS.URI	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2015/DP0924.pdf
DC.subject	happiness
	election
	expectation
	survey
	Japan
DCTERMS.abstract	This paper investigates whether the Japanese voters became happy and/or unhappy due to the results of the General Election in 2009. We conducted a daily web survey for seven days before and after the election, obtaining1068 responses. Estimating a fixed effects model, we found that supporters of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the winner, became significantly happier, and supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) and New Komeito, the losers, became significantly unhappier on the day following the election. However, happiness returned to the previous level in one or two days, implying people adapted to the news very quickly. Dividing those who support the policies of DPJ into two groups, those who expect material benefits from the victory of DPJ and those who do not, we demonstrated that the reason why the supporters of the winner (DPJ) felt happy was not because they obtained material benefits from the change of government. We also found that the happiness level of those whose expectation of the election results were realized did not change, while that of those whose expectation differed from the reality changed substantially. In a word, only unexpected results matter.
DC.format	51201
citation_title	Happiness Before and After an Election : An Analysis Based on a Daily Survey Around Japan's 2009 Election
citation_author	Kimball, Miles
	Morimoto, Shoko
	Kinari, Yusuke
	Ohtake, Fumio
	Tsutsui, Yoshiro
citation_publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
citation_language	English
citation_date	2015-01
citation_journal_title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
citation_volume	924
citation_firstpage	1
citation_lastpage	34
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/51201
citation_abstract_html_url	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2015/DP0924.pdf

Happiness Before and After an Election : An Analysis Based on a Daily Survey Around Japan's 2009 Election

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