Time discounting, ambiguity aversion, and preferences for future environmental policies : Evidence from discrete choice experiments

Hirata, Kenjiro; Ikeda, Shinsuke; Ikefuji, Masako; Kang, Myong-Il; Yamada, Katsunori

Time discounting, ambiguity aversion, and preferences for future environmental policies : Evidence from discrete choice experiments

Hirata, Kenjiro; Ikeda, Shinsuke; Ikefuji, Masako et al.

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2017, 1012, 1-32

Number of Access:690（2025-08-16 03:17 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/67803

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Title	Time discounting, ambiguity aversion, and preferences for future environmental policies : Evidence from discrete choice experiments
Creator	NRID 1000070423209 1000070423209 CreatorName Hirata, Kenjiro
	NRID 1000070184421 1000070184421 CreatorName Ikeda, Shinsuke
	NRID 1000060452380 1000060452380 researchmap permalink 7000013503 7000013503 Scopus Author ID 22934213000 22934213000 CreatorName Ikefuji, Masako
	CreatorName Kang, Myong-Il
	NRID 1000080533603 1000080533603 CreatorName Yamada, Katsunori
Subject	Time discounting
	Ambiguity aversion
	Environmental policy
	Random utility model
	Discrete choice analysis
Abstract	Designing efficient environmental policies requires knowledge about households’ preference parameters for their intertemporal decisions. By conducting an original Internet-based survey using Japanese participants (n=2,906) and a follow-up survey (n=1,407), we examine how people evaluate pro-environmental policies depending on their individual attributes. The discount rates for environmental outcomes are estimated by using a discrete choice experiment. We show that participants’ discount rates in environmental policy choices are on average negative and future-biased. Those who are more ambiguity-averse and patient for money concerns, and anticipate more rapid increases in future temperatures are more willing to incur present-day tax burdens to ensure future environmental improvements. These results are highly robust against alternative estimation models and stable when using the follow-up survey data obtained 21 months later.
Publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
Source Title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
Volume (Issue)	1012
Page	1-32
Date of Issued	2017-09
Language	English
Handle URL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/67803
Relation.references	URI https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2017/DP1012.pdf
Access Rights	metadata only access
Category	ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
Category	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers

Resource Type	technical report
Local Type	DP/WP
DCMI Type	Text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers. 2017, 1012, p. 1-32
DC.title	Time discounting, ambiguity aversion, and preferences for future environmental policies : Evidence from discrete choice experiments
DC.creator	Hirata, Kenjiro
	Ikeda, Shinsuke
	Ikefuji, Masako
	Kang, Myong-Il
	Yamada, Katsunori
DC.publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	English
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	Text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2017-09
DC.relation' scheme='DCTERMS.URI	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2017/DP1012.pdf
DC.subject	Time discounting
	Ambiguity aversion
	Environmental policy
	Random utility model
	Discrete choice analysis
DCTERMS.abstract	Designing efficient environmental policies requires knowledge about households’ preference parameters for their intertemporal decisions. By conducting an original Internet-based survey using Japanese participants (n=2,906) and a follow-up survey (n=1,407), we examine how people evaluate pro-environmental policies depending on their individual attributes. The discount rates for environmental outcomes are estimated by using a discrete choice experiment. We show that participants’ discount rates in environmental policy choices are on average negative and future-biased. Those who are more ambiguity-averse and patient for money concerns, and anticipate more rapid increases in future temperatures are more willing to incur present-day tax burdens to ensure future environmental improvements. These results are highly robust against alternative estimation models and stable when using the follow-up survey data obtained 21 months later.
DC.format	67803
citation_title	Time discounting, ambiguity aversion, and preferences for future environmental policies : Evidence from discrete choice experiments
citation_author	Hirata, Kenjiro
	Ikeda, Shinsuke
	Ikefuji, Masako
	Kang, Myong-Il
	Yamada, Katsunori
citation_publisher	The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
citation_language	English
citation_date	2017-09
citation_journal_title	Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
citation_volume	1012
citation_firstpage	1
citation_lastpage	32
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/67803
citation_abstract_html_url	https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2017/DP1012.pdf

Time discounting, ambiguity aversion, and preferences for future environmental policies : Evidence from discrete choice experiments

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