Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

Haga, Chihiro; Inoue, Takahiro; Hotta, Wataru; Shibata, Rei; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Machimura, Takashi; Matsui, Takanori; Morimoto, Junko; Shibata, Hideaki

doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0623-9

Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

Haga, Chihiro; Inoue, Takahiro; Hotta, Wataru et al.

Sustainability Science, 2019, 14(1), 89-106

Number of Access:1,130（2025-07-17 13:26 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/82384

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Title	Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios
Creator	ORCID 0000-0002-3325-6315 0000-0002-3325-6315 researchmap permalink ChihiroHaga ChihiroHaga CreatorName Haga, Chihiro
	CreatorName Inoue, Takahiro
	CreatorName Hotta, Wataru
	NRID 1000000802654 1000000802654 CreatorName Shibata, Rei
	NRID 1000020462492 1000020462492 CreatorName Hashimoto, Shizuka
	NRID 1000070515733 1000070515733 CreatorName Kurokawa, Hiroko
	NRID 1000030190383 1000030190383 researchmap permalink read0166912 read0166912 Scopus Author ID 6603792007 6603792007 CreatorName Machimura, Takashi
	NRID 1000030423205 1000030423205 ORCID 0000-0001-9441-7664 0000-0001-9441-7664 researchmap permalink read0121175 read0121175 Scopus Author ID 35427475300 35427475300 CreatorName Matsui, Takanori
	NRID 1000050338208 1000050338208 CreatorName Morimoto, Junko
	NRID 1000070281798 1000070281798 CreatorName Shibata, Hideaki
Subject	LANDIS-II model
	Terrestrial ecosystem
	Depopulation
	Forestry practice
	Farmland abandonment
Description	This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Sustain Sci 14. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0623-9.
Abstract	A quantitative scenario approach to compare the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services (ESs) plays a key role in facilitating decision-making for the sustainable management of landscapes. In Japan, the shrinking and aging population will likely lead to a situation of underuse of natural resources, resulting in rewilding of terrestrial ecosystems. This study conducted a quantitative scenario analysis of natural capital and ESs by linking model and social scenarios on a local scale. The case study area was the Bekanbeushi River Watershed in Northern Japan. LANDIS-II model (a forest landscape model) was used to simulate the vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure, and biomass considering impacts of forest and pasture land management. Four “population distribution” and “capital preference” scenarios were translated into forest and pasture land management. The population distribution and capital preference assumptions resulted in different consequences for natural capital and ESs. The population distribution affected the spatial allocation of abandoned pasture land and level of isolation of managed pasture land. The capital preference assumptions largely affected the consequences for ESs. Finally, these simulation results demonstrated the capacity to feed quantitative information to the narrative scenarios. Our process-based approach provides insight into the relationships among social drivers, ecological processes, and the consequences that will affect natural capital and ESs, which can contribute to decision-making and sustainability design of regions, which may face issues associated with underuse in the future.
Publisher	Springer
Source Title	Sustainability Science
Volume (Issue)	14(1)
Page	89-106
Date of Issued	2019-01-22
Language	English
Handle URL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/82384
PISSN	18624065
eISSN	18624057
NCID	AA12171356
Relation.isVersionOf	DOI (Publisher Version) https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0623-9
Access Rights	open access
oaire:version	Accepted Manuscript
Category	学術雑誌論文 Journal Article

Resource Type	journal article
Local Type	Journal Article
DCMI Type	Text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Sustainability Science. 2019, 14(1), p. 89-106
DC.title	Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios
DC.creator	Haga, Chihiro
	Inoue, Takahiro
	Hotta, Wataru
	Shibata, Rei
	Hashimoto, Shizuka
	Kurokawa, Hiroko
	Machimura, Takashi
	Matsui, Takanori
	Morimoto, Junko
	Shibata, Hideaki
DC.publisher	Springer
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	English
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	Text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2019-01-22
DC.identifier	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0623-9
DC.subject	LANDIS-II model
	Terrestrial ecosystem
	Depopulation
	Forestry practice
	Farmland abandonment
DC.description	This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Sustain Sci 14. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0623-9.
DCTERMS.abstract	A quantitative scenario approach to compare the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services (ESs) plays a key role in facilitating decision-making for the sustainable management of landscapes. In Japan, the shrinking and aging population will likely lead to a situation of underuse of natural resources, resulting in rewilding of terrestrial ecosystems. This study conducted a quantitative scenario analysis of natural capital and ESs by linking model and social scenarios on a local scale. The case study area was the Bekanbeushi River Watershed in Northern Japan. LANDIS-II model (a forest landscape model) was used to simulate the vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure, and biomass considering impacts of forest and pasture land management. Four “population distribution” and “capital preference” scenarios were translated into forest and pasture land management. The population distribution and capital preference assumptions resulted in different consequences for natural capital and ESs. The population distribution affected the spatial allocation of abandoned pasture land and level of isolation of managed pasture land. The capital preference assumptions largely affected the consequences for ESs. Finally, these simulation results demonstrated the capacity to feed quantitative information to the narrative scenarios. Our process-based approach provides insight into the relationships among social drivers, ecological processes, and the consequences that will affect natural capital and ESs, which can contribute to decision-making and sustainability design of regions, which may face issues associated with underuse in the future.
DC.format	82384
citation_title	Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios
citation_author	Haga, Chihiro
	Inoue, Takahiro
	Hotta, Wataru
	Shibata, Rei
	Hashimoto, Shizuka
	Kurokawa, Hiroko
	Machimura, Takashi
	Matsui, Takanori
	Morimoto, Junko
	Shibata, Hideaki
citation_publisher	Springer
citation_language	English
citation_date	2019-01-22
citation_journal_title	Sustainability Science
citation_volume	14
citation_issue	1
citation_firstpage	89
citation_lastpage	106
citation_doi	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0623-9
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/82384

Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

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