The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity

Ikefuji, Masako; Magnus, Jan R.; Vasnev, Andrey L.

Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers, 2023, 1217, 1-27

Number of Access:271（2025-08-16 03:17 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/93137

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Title
The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity
Creator
NRID
1000060452380 1000060452380
researchmap permalink
7000013503 7000013503
Scopus Author ID
22934213000 22934213000
CreatorName
Ikefuji, Masako
CreatorName
Magnus, Jan R.
CreatorName
Vasnev, Andrey L.
Subject
Revealed prior
climate sensitivity
data uncertainty
combining information
correlation
IPCC
Abstract
In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to equilibrium climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the IPCC scientists. It appears that the data contain much less information than one might think, due to the presence of correlation. We conclude that the prior in the fifth IPCC report was too low, and in the sixth report too high.
Publisher
The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
Source Title
Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
Volume (Issue)
1217
Page
1-27
Date of Issued
2023-11
Language
English
Handle URL
https://hdl.handle.net/11094/93137
PISSN
0473453X
eISSN
24350982
Relation.references
URI
https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2023/DP1217.pdf
Access Rights
metadata only access
Category
ディスカッション／ワーキング・ペーパー DP/WP
Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers