Assessing future potentiality of technologies from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” – A case study of hydrothermal technology

Hara, Keishiro; Miura, Iori; Suzuki, Masanori et al.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2024, 202, 123289

Number of Access:538（2025-09-05 04:18 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/94895

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Title
Assessing future potentiality of technologies from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” – A case study of hydrothermal technology
Creator
NRID
1000030393036 1000030393036
researchmap permalink
read0138648 read0138648
Scopus Author ID
24528571500 24528571500
CreatorName
Hara, Keishiro
CreatorName
Miura, Iori
NRID
1000020610728 1000020610728
ORCID
0000-0003-1601-2842 0000-0003-1601-2842
researchmap permalink
eternalblue eternalblue
Scopus Author ID
56297002300 56297002300
CreatorName
Suzuki, Masanori
NRID
1000010179773 1000010179773
researchmap permalink
read0013978 read0013978
CreatorName
Tanaka, Toshihiro
Subject
Future potentiality
Hydrothermal technology
Imaginary future generations
Innovation
Technology assessment
Description
Hara K., Miura I., Suzuki M., et al. Assessing future potentiality of technologies from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” – A case study of hydrothermal technology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 202, 123289 (2024); https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123289.
Abstract
To guide technological innovation for sustainability, it is essential to develop a methodology for assessing the future potentiality of a technology from a long-term perspective. In this study, we propose an innovative method for assessing the future potentiality of technology from the perspective of imaginary future generations (IFGs) using a case study of hydrothermal technology and verify the effectiveness of the method. We conducted participatory deliberation experiments adopting the method and studied its effect on the formulation of scenarios for the adoption of hydrothermal technology in society in the year 2040, and on the assessment of the future potentiality and innovation of technology. Using deliberation experiments and questionnaires administered to the participants, we confirmed that IFGs had a significant effect on the adoption of technology in future scenarios and on the assessment results, with concomitant shifts in the relative weights of assessment indicators. We also found that the adoption of IFGs could lead to relativizing the value and positioning of a technology, and to shifting the requirements for the development and adoption of a technology. The results provide insights into the methodology to assess future potentiality of technologies and guide technology innovation from the viewpoint of futurability.
Publisher
Elsevier Inc.
Source Title
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume (Issue)
202
Page
123289
Date of Issued
2024-05-01
Language
English
Handle URL
https://hdl.handle.net/11094/94895
PISSN
00401625
Relation.isIdenticalTo
DOI (Publisher Version)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123289
Access Rights
open access
CopyRight
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
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Version of Record
Category
学術雑誌論文 Journal Article