Long-term spatiotemporal variation of benzo[a]pyrene in Japan: Significant decrease in ambient concentrations, human exposure, and health risk

Araki, Shin; Shimadera, Hikari; Chatani, Satoru et al.

Environmental Pollution, 2024, 360, 124650

Number of Access:629（2025-07-31 22:34 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/97906

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Title
Long-term spatiotemporal variation of benzo[a]pyrene in Japan: Significant decrease in ambient concentrations, human exposure, and health risk
Creator
NRID
1000020794027 1000020794027
ORCID
0000-0002-6149-621X 0000-0002-6149-621X
researchmap permalink
shin_araki shin_araki
Scopus Author ID
56501349300 56501349300
CreatorName
Araki, Shin
NRID
1000020647367 1000020647367
ORCID
0000-0002-2233-8446 0000-0002-2233-8446
researchmap permalink
hikari_shimadera hikari_shimadera
Scopus Author ID
34168355400 34168355400
CreatorName
Shimadera, Hikari
NRID
1000040394837 1000040394837
CreatorName
Chatani, Satoru
CreatorName
Kitayama, Kyo
NRID
1000040226197 1000040226197
CreatorName
Shima, Masayuki
Subject
Air pollution
Ensemble model
Lung cancer
Machine learning
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
Description
Araki S., Shimadera H., Chatani S., et al. Long-term spatiotemporal variation of benzo[a]pyrene in Japan: Significant decrease in ambient concentrations, human exposure, and health risk. Environmental Pollution 360, 124650 (2024); https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124650.
Abstract
Although Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is considered carcinogenic to humans, the health effects of exposure to ambient levels have not been sufficiently investigated. This study estimated the long-term spatiotemporal variation of BaP in Japan over nearly two decades at a fine spatial resolution of 1 km. This study aimed to obtain an accurate spatiotemporal distribution of BaP that can be used in epidemiological studies on the health effects of ambient BaP exposure. The annual BaP concentrations were estimated using an ensemble machine learning approach using various predictors, including the concentrations and emission intensities of the criteria air pollutants, and meteorological, land use, and traffic-related variables. The model performance, evaluated by location-based cross-validation, exhibited satisfactory accuracy (R2 of 0.693). Densely populated areas showed higher BaP levels and greater temporal reduction, whereas BaP levels remained higher in some industrial areas. The population-weighted BaP in 2018 was 0.12 ng m−3, a decrease of approximately 70% from its 2000 value of 0.44 ng m−3, which was also reflected in the estimated excess number of lung cancer incidences. Accordingly, the proportion of BaP exposure below 0.12 ng m−3, which is the BaP concentration associated with an excess lifetime cancer risk of 10−5, reached 67% in 2018. Our estimates can be used in epidemiological studies to assess the health effects of BaP exposure at ambient concentrations.
Publisher
Elsevier Ltd
Source Title
Environmental Pollution
Volume (Issue)
360
Page
124650
Date of Issued
2024-11-01
Language
English
Handle URL
https://hdl.handle.net/11094/97906
PISSN
02697491
eISSN
18736424
Relation.isVersionOf
DOI (Publisher Version)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124650
Access Rights
embargoed access
CopyRight
© 2024. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
The full-text file will be made open to the public on 1 November 2026 in accordance with the publisher's policy.
oaire:version
Accepted Manuscript
Category
学術雑誌論文 Journal Article