Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment

Hara, Keishiro; Fuchigami, Yukari; Arai, Takanobu et al.

Futures and Foresight Science, 2024, 6(4), e191

Number of Access:478（2025-08-16 09:38 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98128

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Title
Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment
Creator
NRID
1000030393036 1000030393036
researchmap permalink
read0138648 read0138648
Scopus Author ID
24528571500 24528571500
CreatorName
Hara, Keishiro
NRID
1000070712834 1000070712834
researchmap permalink
mangrove-asia mangrove-asia
Scopus Author ID
56596562100 56596562100
CreatorName
Fuchigami, Yukari
CreatorName
Arai, Takanobu
NRID
1000090362657 1000090362657
researchmap permalink
read0108233 read0108233
Scopus Author ID
6505911435 6505911435
CreatorName
Nomaguchi, Yutaka
Subject
causal-loop diagram
debate experiment
futurability
imaginary future generations
systems thinking
Description
Hara K., Fuchigami Y., Arai T., et al. Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment. Futures and Foresight Science , (2024); https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.191.
Abstract
We adopted an innovative methodology that combines systems thinking with “imaginary future generations” (IFGs), a method for activating “futurability” in people, to discussions about the issues and needs of a future society, and we verified the effectiveness and value of this methodology. We conducted a series of five debate experiments in which groups comprised of company employees and university students worked to formulate a vision of the future state, social issues, and social needs of society in 2050, and to investigate policies that should be adopted in the years ahead. The results of a text analysis of group debates and questionnaire surveys of debate participants showed that (1) adopting IFGs facilitates the exploration of new issues and needs when depicting the images of the future state of society; (2) adopting IFGs gives rise to recognized cognitive changes in debate participants; and (3) combining the IFG methodology with causal loop diagrams (CLDs), a systems thinking tool, makes it possible to generate the effects of systems thinking while simultaneously maintaining a “future generation” perspective. Most importantly, the results show that the IFG methodology and CLDs could be compatible. These findings demonstrate that a combination of IFGs and systems thinking can effectively be used in discussions and decision-making that deal with complex issues related to the future of society.
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons Inc
Source Title
Futures and Foresight Science
Volume (Issue)
6(4)
Page
e191
Date of Issued
2024-07-22
Language
English
Handle URL
https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98128
eISSN
25735152
Relation.isIdenticalTo
DOI (Publisher Version)
https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.191
Access Rights
open access
CopyRight
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
oaire:version
Version of Record
Category
学術雑誌論文 Journal Article