Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation

Murakami, Michio; Ando, Hiroki; Yamaguchi, Ryo et al.

Science of the Total Environment, 2024, 954, 176702

Number of Access:414（2025-08-14 03:30 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98589

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Title
Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation
Creator
NRID
1000050509932 1000050509932
researchmap permalink
read0123510 read0123510
Scopus Author ID
23486135100 23486135100
CreatorName
Murakami, Michio
CreatorName
Ando, Hiroki
CreatorName
Yamaguchi, Ryo
NRID
1000030777967 1000030777967
CreatorName
Kitajima, Masaaki
Subject
Analytical sensitivity
Data handling
Sampling frequency
SARS-CoV-2
Wastewater surveillance
Wastewater-based epidemiological monitoring
Description
Murakami M., Ando H., Yamaguchi R., et al. Evaluating survey techniques in wastewater-based epidemiology for accurate COVID-19 incidence estimation. Science of the Total Environment 954, 176702 (2024); https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176702.
Abstract
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) requires high-quality survey methods to determine the incidence of infections in wastewater catchment areas. In this study, the wastewater survey methods necessary for comprehending the incidence of infection by WBE are clarified. This clarification is based on the correlation with the number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, considering factors such as handling non-detect data, calculation method for representative values, analytical sensitivity, analytical reproducibility, sampling frequency, and survey duration. Data collected from 15 samples per week for two and a half years using a highly accurate analysis method were regarded as gold standard data, and the correlation between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentrations in wastewater and confirmed COVID-19 cases was analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation under the hypothetical situation where the quality of the wastewater survey method was reduced. Regarding data handling, it was appropriate to replace non-detect data with estimates based on distribution, and to use geometric means to calculate representative values. For the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in samples, using a highly sensitive and reproducible method (non-detect rates of <40 %; ≤0.4 standard deviation) and surveying at least three samples, preferably five samples, per week were considered desirable. Furthermore, conducting the survey over a period of time that included at least 50 weeks was necessary. A WBE that meets these survey criteria is sufficient for the determination of the COVID-19 infection incidence in the catchment. Furthermore, WBE can offer additional insights into infection rates in the catchment, such as the estimated 48 % decrease in confirmed COVID-19 cases visiting a clinic following a COVID-19 legal reclassification in Japan.
Publisher
Elsevier B.V.
Source Title
Science of the Total Environment
Volume (Issue)
954
Page
176702
Date of Issued
2024-12-01
Language
English
Handle URL
https://hdl.handle.net/11094/98589
PISSN
00489697
eISSN
18791026
Relation.isIdenticalTo
DOI (Publisher Version)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176702
Access Rights
open access
CopyRight
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
oaire:version
Version of Record
Category
学術雑誌論文 Journal Article