Temperature-time evaluation as a tool for ‘future-proofing’ urban building energy modelling (UBEM)

Zajch, Andrew Marian; Yamaguchi, Yohei; Shono, Keita; Shigematsu, Tomoki; Uchida, Hideaki; Ueno, Tsuyoshi; Shimoda, Yoshiyuki

doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116033

Temperature-time evaluation as a tool for ‘future-proofing’ urban building energy modelling (UBEM)

Zajch, Andrew Marian; Yamaguchi, Yohei; Shono, Keita et al.

Energy and Buildings, 2025, 345, 116033

Number of Access:18（2025-09-18 06:09 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/11094/102618

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Title	Temperature-time evaluation as a tool for ‘future-proofing’ urban building energy modelling (UBEM)
Creator	CreatorName Zajch, Andrew Marian
	NRID 1000040448098 1000040448098 ORCID 0000-0001-6794-5939 0000-0001-6794-5939 researchmap permalink read0140668 read0140668 Scopus Author ID 8638124400 8638124400 CreatorName Yamaguchi, Yohei
	CreatorName Shono, Keita
	CreatorName Shigematsu, Tomoki
	NRID 1000090837387 1000090837387 ORCID 0009-0004-1515-9062 0009-0004-1515-9062 researchmap permalink hideaki_uchida hideaki_uchida Scopus Author ID 57195614241 57195614241 CreatorName Uchida, Hideaki
	NRID 1000050516622 1000050516622 CreatorName Ueno, Tsuyoshi
	NRID 1000020226278 1000020226278 ORCID 0000-0002-4487-0089 0000-0002-4487-0089 researchmap permalink read0014119 read0014119 Scopus Author ID 15081121700 15081121700 CreatorName Shimoda, Yoshiyuki
Subject	Bottom-up type simulation model
	Electricity demand validation
	Future-proof design
	Residential electricity demand
Description	Zajch A.M., Yamaguchi Y., Shono K., et al. Temperature-time evaluation as a tool for ‘future-proofing’ urban building energy modelling (UBEM). Energy and Buildings 345, 116033 (2025); https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116033.
Abstract	Urban Building Energy Modelling (UBEM) application has become a powerful tool for stakeholders to understand the impacts of the building sector and its role in contributing to climate policies through the simulation of future scenarios. Current UBEM validation has not been explicitly tailored to these applications despite the growing demand from model ‘consumers’, such as policy makers, who may not be aware of UBEM limitations. A model agnostic temperature–time framework was developed and applied to three municipalities in Japan. This identified the influence of temperature-related bias in energy demand estimates by examining the distribution of error across the temperature–time domain as well as comparing the temperature elasticity of modelled energy consumption. All municipalities recorded Coefficient of Variance Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE) <30 % for both weekday and weekend conditions while only 4 municipal-day type pairs met the Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE) criteria of being within ±10 %. Despite meeting these conventional standards, no municipality was able to pass all the temperature–time criteria proposed in the framework highlighting a gap in conventional metrics due to the persistence of temperature–time biases. Notably, no city, and only 1 % of districts, were able to simulate cooling elasticity effectively. The stringent nature of the proposed temperature–time framework suggests it presents an aspirational target for ‘future-proof’ UBEM and a means for increased model transparency.
Publisher	Elsevier Ltd
Source Title	Energy and Buildings
Volume (Issue)	345
Page	116033
Date of Issued	2025-07-03
Language	English
Handle URL	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/102618
PISSN	03787788
Relation.isIdenticalTo	DOI (Publisher Version) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116033
Access Rights	open access
CopyRight	© 2025. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
oaire:version	Version of Record
Category	学術雑誌論文 Journal Article

Resource Type	journal article
Local Type	Journal Article
DCMI Type	Text
DCTERMS.bibliographicCitation	Energy and Buildings. 2025, 345, p. 116033
DC.title	Temperature-time evaluation as a tool for ‘future-proofing’ urban building energy modelling (UBEM)
DC.creator	Zajch, Andrew Marian
	Yamaguchi, Yohei
	Shono, Keita
	Shigematsu, Tomoki
	Uchida, Hideaki
	Ueno, Tsuyoshi
	Shimoda, Yoshiyuki
DC.publisher	Elsevier Ltd
DC.language' scheme='DCTERMS.RFC1766	English
DC.type' scheme='DCTERMS.DCMIType	Text
DCTERMS.issued' scheme='DCTERMS.W3CDTF	2025-07-03
DC.identifier	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116033
DC.subject	Bottom-up type simulation model
	Electricity demand validation
	Future-proof design
	Residential electricity demand
DC.description	Zajch A.M., Yamaguchi Y., Shono K., et al. Temperature-time evaluation as a tool for ‘future-proofing’ urban building energy modelling (UBEM). Energy and Buildings 345, 116033 (2025); https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116033.
DCTERMS.abstract	Urban Building Energy Modelling (UBEM) application has become a powerful tool for stakeholders to understand the impacts of the building sector and its role in contributing to climate policies through the simulation of future scenarios. Current UBEM validation has not been explicitly tailored to these applications despite the growing demand from model ‘consumers’, such as policy makers, who may not be aware of UBEM limitations. A model agnostic temperature–time framework was developed and applied to three municipalities in Japan. This identified the influence of temperature-related bias in energy demand estimates by examining the distribution of error across the temperature–time domain as well as comparing the temperature elasticity of modelled energy consumption. All municipalities recorded Coefficient of Variance Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE) <30 % for both weekday and weekend conditions while only 4 municipal-day type pairs met the Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE) criteria of being within ±10 %. Despite meeting these conventional standards, no municipality was able to pass all the temperature–time criteria proposed in the framework highlighting a gap in conventional metrics due to the persistence of temperature–time biases. Notably, no city, and only 1 % of districts, were able to simulate cooling elasticity effectively. The stringent nature of the proposed temperature–time framework suggests it presents an aspirational target for ‘future-proof’ UBEM and a means for increased model transparency.
DC.rights	© 2025. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
DC.format	102618
citation_title	Temperature-time evaluation as a tool for ‘future-proofing’ urban building energy modelling (UBEM)
citation_author	Zajch, Andrew Marian
	Yamaguchi, Yohei
	Shono, Keita
	Shigematsu, Tomoki
	Uchida, Hideaki
	Ueno, Tsuyoshi
	Shimoda, Yoshiyuki
citation_publisher	Elsevier Ltd
citation_language	English
citation_date	2025-07-03
citation_journal_title	Energy and Buildings
citation_volume	345
citation_firstpage	116033
citation_doi	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116033
citation_public_url	https://hdl.handle.net/11094/102618

Temperature-time evaluation as a tool for ‘future-proofing’ urban building energy modelling (UBEM)

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